Bracketology: Division I girls basketball

The regular season came to an end Friday night in Division I girls basketball, and many seeds were still up for grabs going into those games.

That included the top nine spots in the tournament. With all those games now in the books, its time to take a look at where each team should end up when the NHIAA pairings are released on Monday.

Note: These pairings are not official. They are what we expect them to be based on our interpretations of the tiebreakers.

Who is No. 1?

Bedford (16-2) and Londonderry (16-2) ended the regular season with wins over Bishop Guertin and Nashua North, respectively, Friday night, and finished the year with identical records and ratings. And because they split two games this year, the head-to-head tiebreaker can't be used to determine who gets the top seed.

Likewise, each team had the same record (14-2) against teams in the tournament, or tied for the final tournament spot. That brings it to the third tiebreaker - quality of wins against the division's tournament teams.

Bedford and Londonderry had 14 of their 16 wins against the same opponents. They beat each other once, giving each a win over a 16-2 team, so the only difference was that Bedford defeated Manchester Central (14-4) and lost to Pinkerton (13-5); Londonderry lost to Central and beat Pinkerton.

Because of that one-win difference between the two, Bedford has a higher ranking in the quality of wins category and should be the No. 1 seed in the tournament, and Londonderry should be No. 2.

A little bit easier

The tie for third place is much easier to break, as Central (14-4) holds the head-to-head win over Bishop Guertin (14-4), meaning the Little Green get the three seed and the Cardinals the fourth.

Pinkerton (13-5) is all alone in fifth place, meaning the Astros are the No. 5 seed. Alvirne (12-6) holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with North (12-6), so the Broncos should be the No. 6 seed and the Titans the seventh.

Manchester Memorial (11-7) should get the No. 8 seed thanks to its head-to-head win over Winnacunnet (11-7), who should get the No. 9 seed. And Dover (10-8) is alone in 10th, meaning it will have that seed for the tournament.

Bottom six

There is a three-way tie for 11th between Nashua South (6-12), Salem (6-12) and Trinity (6-12). All three teams split against each other and all three had a 4-12 record against teams in the tournament.

Using the third tiebreaker, Nashua South ends up with the 11th seed because its regular-season win over Dover gives the Panthers a better quality of wins ranking than Salem and Trinity. Since Salem holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Trinity, the Blue Devils should be the 12th seed and the Pioneers the 13th.

Keene (5-13) is the No. 14 seed while Exeter (3-15) is the 15th seed thanks to its head-to-head win over Concord (3-15), which is 16th.

Tournament field

1. Bedford (16-2, 3.5556) - quality of wins
2. Londonderry (16-2, 3.5556)
3. Manchester Central (14-4, 3.1111) - head-to-head
4. Bishop Guertin (14-4, 3.1111)
5. Pinkerton (13-5, 2.8889)
6. Alvirne (12-6, 2.6667) - head-to-head
7. Nashua North (12-6, 2.6667)
8. Manchester Memorial (11-7, 2.4444) - head-to-head
9. Winnacunnet (11-7, 2.4444)
10. Dover (10-8, 2.2222)
11. Nashua South (6-12, 1.3333) - quality of wins
12. Salem (6-12, 1.3333) - head-to-head
13. Trinity (6-12, 1.3333)
14. Keene (5-13, 1.1111)
15. Exeter (3-15, 0.6667) - head-to-head
16. Concord (3-15, 0.6667)

Projected Pairings

Note: These are not official. The NHIAA will release official pairings on Monday.

• No. 16 Concord at No. 1 Bedford
• No. 9 Winnacunnet at No. 8 Manchester Memorial
• No. 13 Trinity at No. 4 Bishop Guertin
• No. 12 Salem at No. 5 Pinkerton
• No. 15 Exeter at No. 2 Londonderry
• No. 10 Dover at No. 7 Nashua North
• No. 14 Keene at No. 3 Manchester Central
• No. 11 Nashua South at No. 6 Alvirne

Tournament schedule

• Preliminary round: Tuesday, March 3 at higher seed.
• Quarterfinals: Friday, March 6 at higher seed.
• Semifinals: Monday, March 9 at Southern New Hampshire University.
• Final: Friday, March 13 at Southern New Hampshire University.