Who would win a boys basketball state tournament in 2016?
Two undefeated teams. Two more that had just one loss. And two Division I teams that had more losses combined than all the other six finalists combined. This year sure would have made for an interesting boys basketball state tournament. On Wednesday, we laid out the foundation of what such a tournam
Two undefeated teams. Two more that had just one loss. And two Division I teams that had more losses combined than all the other six finalists combined.
This year sure would have made for an interesting boys basketball state tournament. On Wednesday, we laid out the foundation of what such a tournament would look like, and what kind of schedule it could follow.
After asking a few head coaches from each division what they thought, we used their opinions and combined it with our rating system (see below) to determine which team would have won an eight-team state tournament.
[Editor's note: We wanted to do a girls basketball tournament as well, but there was not enough of a response from the coaches we reached out to.]
How the ratings are done
We took the NHIAA’s football rating system, and gave it a little tweak. Instead of 10 points for a win, we weighted the wins by division, giving 12 for a win over a D1 team, 10 for a win over D2, eight for a win over D3, and six for a win over D4. Plus, every team got two points for a win by a beaten opponent. The two point totals were added together and divided by the number of games played.
Quarterfinals
No. 8 Kearsarge (D3-2) vs. No. 1 Manchester Central (D1-1)
A battle of size (Kearsarge) and athleticism (Central) that many felt would favor the Little Green.
"Central has more firepower," a Division I coach said. "You've got to stop Jaylen Leroy. He's tough because he goes inside and outside. (Evan) MacDonald can make shots outside. So can (Jonathin) Makori. They play very well as a team."
"Kearsarge is huge and they depend on that size a lot," a Division III coach said. "They depend on the one-three-one zone. (Trent) Noordsij is a huge part of what they do and (Thomas) Johnson came on strong at the end.
"I think with Central's pressure, and it's athletes, they'd full-court press to the max and pull away. An up-and-down game would cause a lot of problems for Keasarge. Central doesn't have a problem scoring, they have the shooters to knock down shots against the one-three-one zone. If Keasarge had to go man-to-man, it couldn't guard Central."
"It's an intriguing matchup because you have the size of Kearsarge going against the speed and quickness of Central," a Division IV coach said. "A big thing for Central is defending against the high-low that Kearsarge runs."
"I'd have to give the edge to Central just because of they way they pressure," a Division II coach said. "I love big men, they're great to have, but you have to have great guards."
Rating: Central has the edge here with a rating (including playoffs) of 25.55, while Kearsarge has a rating of 22.00.
Winner: Manchester Central.
No. 5 Lebanon (D2-2) vs. No. 4 Littleton (D4-1)
The coaches felt these were two evenly matched teams, but that eventually, depth would become a factor.
"It would be a fun game because both teams would press, but Lebanon has more athletes and more players," a Division III coach said. "Kuba (Kubkowski) was the player of the year for Littleton, but they just don't have the depth Lebanon has."
"Lebanon wants to pressure you and turn you over and they're best when they can get in transition," a Division II coach said. "Part of what makes them so good is they can spread you out and score. They can all shoot the 3 and they can all penetrate."
"The thing with Littleton is they keep coming at you in waves," a Division IV coach said. "You have to guard every position and respect every single guy.
"But I'd give the nod to Lebanon for one reason: Physicality. Littleton doesn't have a true post player."
Rating: While Littleton's is high (25.09) for a team from D4, Lebanon's is higher at 27.18.
Winner: Lebanon.
No. 7 Portsmouth Christian (D4-2) vs. No. 2 Portsmouth (D2-1)
This matchup of seacoast teams could end up being one-sided, according the coaches.
"Portsmouth Christians is a decent squad and well-coached, but Portsmouth would be too much," a Division II coach said. "They just don't have a weakness. They're so well-rounded, both offensively and defensively.
"Portsmouth is probably the best defensive team in the state, partially because they are so disciplined. They are always in the right spot and they make you work for everything. They don't have many breakdowns."
"Portsmouth would run away with it," a Division III coach said. "They have the guards, they have the size."
"Kylani Lafleur is legit, he'd be first or second team in any division," a Division IV coach said. "Portsmouth Christian is physically able to play with other teams, they can matchup at almost every position, but would get hurt in one place, point guard.
"They would struggle with trying to contain Joey Glynn. One knock on Lafleur is he can get in foul trouble, and when he comes off the court, they're a different team."
Rating: Portsmouth finished the year with a rating of 28.64, while Portsmouth Christian came in at 16.64.
Winner: Portsmouth.
No. 6 Merrimack (D1-2) vs. No. 3 Pelham (D3-1)
The question here seemed to be would Merrimack be able to slow Pelham's Keith Brown down enough?
"That would be an unbelievable game," a Division IV coach said. "I'd probably give the nod to Pelham, but not by much. When you have the best player on the court, and Keith (Brown) can beat you in so many different ways, in one game, I love to have the guy."
"Pelham obviously has the best player in the state and they go as he goes," a Division III coach said. "Other guys contribute but they're open because everyone is concentrated on Keith."
"Merrimack plays as a team," a Division I coach said. "They make the extra pass all the time. Ian Cummings got really good at the end of the year. He can get inside and get outside, he's a very smooth player who knows the game. That's the thing, they're a very smart team.
"The whole thing would be if Merrimack can impose its will. It's tough for one guy to beat a team. The way Merrimack plays, it'd be tough. This would be the best game."
"Does Merrimack have anyone who could slow down Brown, that's the key" a Division II coach said. "Maybe (Andrew) Wojciak can. They could slow Pelham down, but one thing that hurts them is the inability to score.
"Very rarely would I bet against (Merrimack coach) Tim Goodridge. (Pelham coach) Matt Regan is a great coach, but Tim has been around the block. Merrimack wins that game."
Rating: Pelham has the edge with a rating of 26.45, while Merrimack is at 20.36.
Winner: Pelham.
Semifinals
No. 5 Lebanon vs. No. 1 Manchester Central
While the coaches were split on who would win, all agreed it'd be a high-scoring affair if the Raiders and Little Green were to meet.
"Both would get after each other," a Division III coach said. "It could be a game that's in the 90s."
"Some of Lebanon's sets against man-to-man are tough to defend," a Division II coach said. "They shoot really well. They're one of the teams that you can tell they've been taught well and played together a long time."
"Defensively, you just have to man (Central) up and switch on picks and attack them," a Division I coach said. "They play very well as a team."
"I'd put Central over Lebanon," a Division IV coach said.
Rating: Lebanon wins out here with its rating of 27.18, compared to a 25.55 rating for Central.
Winner: Lebanon, but not by much.
No. 3 Pelham vs. No. 2 Portsmouth
One coach thought Pelham could pull it off, while another felt a game between last year's Pelham team and this year's Portsmouth team could be one of the best in the state.
"Pelham isn't what it was last year defensively," a Division III coach said. "They were the best team in the state last year. I don't think they're as good defensively. They are in Division III, but against Portsmouth, the size and the guard play would make a difference."
"I lover that matchup," a Division IV coach said. "The coaches know everything about one another. I wonder if there is a guy on Portsmouth who could slow down Brown. I could see an upset, but question would be whether (Pelham) could slow down Glynn inside."
"Portsmouth is so deep and so well-rounded," a Division II coach said. "They have a legitimate big man who wants to be a big man. They have a legitimate point guard in Cody Graham and (Shon) Parham is tremendous."
Rating: Portsmouth's rating of 28.64 is higher than Pelham's 26.45.
Winner: Portsmouth.
Championship
No. 5 Lebanon vs. No. 2 Portsmouth
A rematch of the Division II title game, but would it be closer than the first time around?
Portsmouth played six teams multiple times this season, including three times against Coe-Brown and St. Thomas. While there were some instances that an opponent's point total went up the second time around, all where still blowouts for the Clippers.
"It is really tough to score on (Portsmouth), as we saw in the championship game," a Division II coach said. "Lebanon is an offensive team and they mustered 29 points. The defense is for real."
"It was obvious that the best team in the state was Portsmouth," a Division I coach said.
Rating: Portsmouth again has the higher rating than Lebanon (28.64-27.18).
Winner: Portsmouth.