A way-too-early look at the 2018 football season

As with any predictions, especially ones made almost a year in advance, there are many things that can happen to throw them off.

Injuries, poor play, players moving or transferring or deciding not to play, coaching changes, or just bad luck can wreak havoc on any type of predictions, but this year, there is another factor that will affect picking playoff teams for the 2018 football season.

What will the divisions in New Hampshire high school football look like when teams begin practice next August? And how many of them will there be?

While nothing is official yet, the chatter around the gridiron makes it sound like there will be four divisions next fall, with each one varying in size. It sounds like Division I will stay at 20 teams, while Division II will drop below 20 (likely 18), and the remaining teams split between Division III and IV (either 10 and 10, or 12 and eight).

How scheduling and playoffs will work for an eight-team division - maybe a shorter season with half the teams in the playoffs - remains to be seen, and so does which teams will be in the new D4.

Instead, here's a look at who will likely compete for a playoff spot in the top three divisions.

Division I

There will be at least one change to the division going into next season, as Windham will move up from D2 and Alvirne will likely move down. It makes the most sense to put the Jaguars into the South Conference with Pinkerton, Salem, Londonderry and Timberlane and move Merrimack to the West with the three Nashua schools and Keene.

But that's assuming the division remains broken down into four conferences. With D2 and D3 operating well with two conferences the last couple of years, it's possible that D1 could make a similar move and go to two-10 team conferences.

So will be the teams to watch? Well, any discussion on contenders has to begin with this year's runner-up, Pinkerton, as the Astros were a junior-heavy team and now have the experience of a title-game run under their collective belts. Nashua North is another team that relied almost completely on sophomores and juniors and should be back in the playoffs in 2018.

Manchester Central should be a playoff contender with quarterback Alex Hawkom returning for his senior year to lead the way, while teams like Exeter and Bedford will always have a shot at the postseason. Winnacunnet, despite losing a lot of seniors, could also be a team in the mix and Londonderry returns a lot of underclassmen.

While Windham has lost only four games over the last four seasons, it might be too much to expect the Jaguars to be a playoff team right away, but don't be surprised if it happens. And don't count out Goffstown, which will be returning its quarterback and top running back for next season.

Here’s a way-too-early prediction of what next year’s playoffs might look like, assuming that the division is still broken down into four conferences.

North/West Cluster: Manchester Central, Nashua North, Bedford, Goffstown.

South/East Cluster: Pinkerton, Exeter, Londonderry, Winnacunnet.

Division II

A smaller division helps to create a more balanced schedule, as 11-team conferences led to a bit of scheduling mess, especially when Trinity dropped its varsity program before the 2017 season.

But if D2 ends up being an 18-team division, that breaks down perfectly for a nine-game season, with each team in the conference playing one another, plus one crossover game with the other conference. Alvirne lines up perfectly to take Windham's spot in the South Conference and keep each side even.

As for on the field, Plymouth and Bow - the division finalists the last two years - take some hits, especially at the skill positions, from graduation, but it doesn't seem wise to count either out. Hanover had just six seniors on the roster this year, and while most were key contributors, the Marauders should be in the mix.

John Stark, St. Thomas, Hollis Brookline and Souhegan are among this year's playoff teams who return their starting quarterbacks, which should go a long way toward helping any of them back to the postseason.

Pelham was the hottest team down the stretch, just missing out on the playoffs after not allowing a point in its final four games, and the Pythons return a lot of young talent on offense.

Here’s a way-too-early look at what the playoffs might look like, in no particular order, assuming all remain in D2.

Playoff teams: Plymouth, St. Thomas, Hollis Brookline, Souhegan, Hanover, Bow, Pelham, John Stark.

Division III (and IV)

Of the 20 teams that will comprise these two divisions, it's likely that D4 will be made up of the smallest schools, with the exception of Somersworth, Trinity and Newport. Meanwhile, Fall Mountain would likely move down to give D4 eight teams.

That would give D3 a total of 12 teams, which makes schedule somewhat difficult.

How is the division divided? Into two conferences of six teams? Or is the idea of conferences scrapped completely? Either way, it leads to a schedule that's unbalanced.

So while what the division looks like is unknown, it's clear that the teams that played in this year's title game are playoff contenders in 2018. Monadnock, despite it's small rosters, returns it's top three skill players, while Campbell also has a lot of talent returning.

Somersworth always seems to find its way into the playoff conversation and Stevens is never a team to be taken lightly, especially since the Cardinals will have plenty of experience returning. Newport also has some key contributors returning and who knows what Trinity will look like after a year off from varsity football.

Due to the uncertainty of what these last two divisions look like, picking playoff teams for 2018 will be reserved for a later date.

Only 36 weeks until the start of the 2018 preseason.