Playoff Picture: Division II football

There are 10 football teams fighting for eight playoff spots in Division II, but as stated last week, all 11 games within the division will influence who gets in and who is out.

The postseason in D2 is determined by rating, with only the first-place team from the North and the South Conferences guaranteed a playoff spot.

But before getting too deep into ratings and tiebreakers, let's take a look at what the top 10 looks like going into this weekend's games.

Top 10 in D2

1. Windham (8-0, 17.25) - South Conference first place
2. Hanover (8-0, 15.00) - North Conference first place
3. John Stark (7-1, 14.00)
4. St. Thomas (6-2, 13.00)
5. Bow (7-1, 13.00)
6. Plymouth (6-2, 12.00)
7. Milford (6-2, 11.15)
8. ConVal (6-2, 10.75)
9. Lebanon (5-3, 10.25)
10. Hollis Brookline (6-2, 10.00)

Teams that are in: Windham, Hanover, John Stark.

Teams that should be in: St. Thomas, Bow.

Bubble: Plymouth, Milford, ConVal, Lebanon, Hollis Brookline.

Key games: Plymouth at Milford, Friday, 7 p.m.; John Stark at Hanover, Friday, 7 p.m.; Windham at ConVal, Friday, 7 p.m.; Hollis Brookline at Souhegan, Friday, 7 p.m.; Lebanon at Bow, Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Now on to the fun stuff. What does each team need to do to get into the postseason?

For starters, here is what the NHIAA handbooks says about seeding for the Division II tournament.

So unlike Division I and III, where the brackets are divided into separate groups of four, Division II teams are seeded 1-8, with the two conferences winners seeded first and second. Using the order listed above, here is where each team stands going into the final games of the regular season.

Windham

• Rating: 17.25 (8-0).
• Wins: Hollis Brookline, Milford, Hillsboro-Deering/Hopkinton, Souhegan, St. Thomas, Trinity, Lebanon, Manchester West.
• Remaining opponent: ConVal (6-2).
• Potential points from own win: 22 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 4-12 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 18.22-18.89.
• Range of rating with a loss: 15.78-16.44.
• Analysis: Windham has won the South Conference and will be the No. 1 seed with a win over ConVal, while a loss could drop the Jaguars to no worse than second.

Hanover

• Rating: 15.00 (8-0).
• Wins: Laconia, Merrimack Valley, Pembroke, Lebanon, Gilford-Belmont, Sanborn, Kingswood, Kennett.
• Remaining opponent: John Stark (7-1).
• Potential points from own win: 24 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 6-10 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 16.67-17.11.
• Range of rating with a loss: 14.00-14.44.
• Analysis: Hanover could end up as the No. 1 seed with a win over John Stark and a Windham loss, although it's possible Hanover could still be the two seed in that scenario. Could fall as far as sixth with a loss to John Stark and wins by Bow, St. Thomas and Plymouth.

John Stark

• Rating: 14.00 (7-1).
• Wins: Souhegan, Gilford-Belmont, Lebanon, Kingswood, Laconia, Pembroke, Plymouth.
• Remaining opponent: Hanover (8-0).
• Potential points from own win: 26 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-12 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 15.56-16.67.
• Range of rating with a loss: 12.67-13.78.
• Analysis: John Stark could still end up as the No. 1 seed with a win over Hanover and a Windham loss, but the Generals would likely ended up as the No. 2 seed with a win. A loss could drop John Stark as low as sixth.

St. Thomas

• Rating: 13.00 (6-2).
• Wins: Sanborn, Pelham, Souhegan, Milford, Hillsboro-Deering/Hopkinton, ConVal.
• Remaining opponent: Trinity (1-7).
• Potential points from own win: 12 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-10 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 13.11-14.00.
• Range of rating with a loss: 11.78-12.67.
• Analysis: St. Thomas looks like it will be in the playoffs even with a loss to Trinity. The Saints can't pass Windham, so the highest they can finish is third, but would need a win and losses by John Stark, Bow and Plymouth. With a win, St. Thomas could finish anywhere between third and seventh, while a loss could drop the Saints as low as eighth.

Bow

• Rating: 13.00 (7-1).
• Wins: Pembroke, Hillsboro-Deering/Hopkinton, Gilford-Belmont, Kingswood, Kennett, Merrimack Valley, John Stark.
• Remaining opponent: Lebanon (5-3).
• Potential points from own win: 20 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 4-10 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 14.22-14.89.
• Range of rating with a loss: 12.00-12.67.
• Analysis: It looks like Bow will be in the postseason regardless of its outcome against Lebanon, but a loss would likely drop the Falcons down to eighth. Bow could also finish as high as third, as it will come in behind the winner of Hanover-John Stark even with a win over Lebanon.

Plymouth

• Rating: 12.00 (6-2).
• Wins: Kingswood, Kennett, Laconia, Bow, Merrimack Valley, Gilford-Belmont.
• Remaining opponent: Milford (6-2).
• Potential points from own win: 22 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 4-8 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 13.56-14.00.
• Range of rating with a loss: 11.11-11.56.
• Analysis: A win over Milford would get Plymouth into the playoffs. A loss could mean the Bobcats, who started the year 6-0, miss the playoffs, but that would only happen if ConVal and Lebanon win. Plymouth could finish as high as third with a win and losses by Bow, John Stark and St. Thomas.

Milford

• Rating: 11.15 (6-2).
• Wins: ConVal, Pelham, Manchester West, Souhegan, Trinity, Sanborn.
• Remaining opponent: Plymouth (6-2).
• Potential points from own win: 22 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-8 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 12.67-13.33.
• Range of rating with a loss: 10.22-10.89.
• Analysis: A win for Milford gets it into the playoffs, and a loss would drop the Spartans out, unless two of ConVal, Lebanon and Hollis Brookline also lose. With a win, Milford would likely be seeded somewhere between fifth and seventh. If Milford loses and still gets in, it would likely be the eighth seed.

ConVal

• Rating: 10.75 (6-2).
• Wins: Manchester West, Kingswood, Sanborn, Trinity, Hollis Brookline, Pelham.
• Remaining opponent: Windham (8-0).
• Potential points from own win: 26 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-8 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 12.67-13.33.
• Range of rating with a loss: 9.78-10.44.
• Analysis: ConVal gets in with a win, and could still get in with a loss, but would also need loses by Lebanon and Hollis Brookline. The Cougars finish as high as fifth with a win and as low as eighth.

Lebanon

• Rating: 10.25 (5-3).
• Wins: Merrimack Valley, Pembroke, Kennett, Laconia, Plymouth.
• Remaining opponent: Bow (7-1).
• Potential points from own win: 24 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-6 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 12.00-12.67.
• Range of rating with a loss: 9.33-10.00.
• Analysis: Lebanon needs to beat Bow to get into the playoffs. A win would move the Raiders past the loser of Milford-Plymouth and ConVal, if it loses to Windham. Lebanon could get in with a loss, but would also need ConVal and Hollis Brookline to lose.

Hollis Brookline

• Rating: 10.00 (6-2).
• Wins: Sanborn, Trinity, Merrimack Valley, Hillsboro-Deering/Hopkinton, Manchester West, Pelham.
• Remaining opponent: Souhegan (3-5).
• Potential points from own win: 16 points.
• Potential points from other games: anywhere from 2-8 points.
• Range of rating with a win: 11.11-11.33.
• Range of rating with a loss: 9.33-9.56.
• Analysis: Hollis Brookline needs a win to get in, plus a loss by Milford or ConVal. There's a chance the Cavaliers could end up with a better rating than Plymouth if it loses to Milford, but it's slim. A loss eliminates the Cavaliers.

Predicted order of finish

1. Windham
2. John Stark
3. Bow
4. Hanover
5. St. Thomas
6. Plymouth
7. Hollis Brookline
8. Milford