Lots of tiebreaking to be done in D2 girls basketball

With five ties in the top 10 and three teams tied for 15th, a lot of tiebreakers need to be applied to get the 16-team field for the Division II girls basketball tournament.

Here’s a look at the potential field of 16 teams and where they might end up, based on our interpretation of the NHIAA’s tiebreakers. Official brackets are expected to be released on Monday.

Look at all those ties

There are five two-team ties among the top 10 teams, and not all of them are broken with the simple head-to-head tiebreaker.

That includes the top spot, where Milford (16-2) and Hanover (16-2) finished the regular season knotted up. Since they didn't play each other, the second tiebreaker - rating against teams in the playoffs or tied for the final spot - comes into play. Using that, Milford, which was 12-2 for a rating of 3.43, gets the nod over Hanover, which was 9-2 and 3.27.

The tie for third place between Souhegan (14-4) and Merrimack Valley (14-4) goes even deeper into tiebreakers, as they also didn't play during the regular season and both teams were an identical 11-4/2.93 in the second tiebreaker.

So then it goes to the third tie breaker of quality of wins against tournament teams, which the NHIAA explains the following way:

Ranking is defined as the total number of wins by beaten opponents in division that qualify for the tournament against other tournament teams divided by the total number of games against tournament opponents. Example: If you played eight tournament teams and you beat three of them, you would add the wins against tournament teams of those three beaten opponents. You would then divide that total by the number of tournament opponents played by all eight of the tournament teams you have played.

Both teams played 15 games against tournament teams, and each won 11. The teams Souhegan beat won a combined 81 games against playoff teams, and the playoff teams it played had a total of 220 games against playoff teams, for a rating of .368. The teams Merrimack Valley beat won 57 games against playoff teams and the playoff teams it played had a total of 218 games against playoff teams for a rating of .261.

Souhegan should be the No. 3 seed and Merrimack Valley the No. 4.

The tie for the fifth spot is a little easier: Lebanon (13-5) beat Coe-Brown (13-5) head-to-head, so the Raiders are the No. 5 and the Bears are the No. 6. Same goes for the seventh seed, as Portsmouth (12-6) beat Pembroke (12-6) head-to-head.

No. 9 is a little more complicated, as Windham (10-8) and Goffstown (10-8) split their two games this season. In games against playoff opponents, Windham was 8-8/2.0 while Goffstown was 7-8/1.87, so the Jaguars are the ninth seed and Grizzlies are the 10th.

A little easier, but then ...

The next four are pretty simple: Hollis Brookline (9-9) is the 11th seed, Oyster River (8-10) is the 12th seed, St. Thomas (7-11) is at No. 13 and Kingswood (6-12) is No. 14.

And then there is the three-way tie between Pelham (5-13), Plymouth (5-13) and Kennett (5-13) for the final two spots in the postseason. Since those three teams didn't play each other an equal number of times, it goes to the second tiebreaker. Pelham had the best rating against playoff teams, going 3-10/.800, giving the Pythons the 15th seed.

So that leaves Plymouth and Kennett for the final playoff spot. The teams split their two meetings during the regular season, but Plymouth had a better rating against playoff teams (2-10/.667) compared to Kennett (1-12/.308), so the Bobcats are the 16th seed.

How they should be seeded

1. Milford (16-2)
2. Hanover (16-2)
3. Souhegan (14-4)
4. Merrimack Valley (14-4)
5. Lebanon (13-5)
6. Coe-Brown (13-5)
7. Portsmouth (12-6)
8. Pembroke (12-6)
9. Windham (10-8)
10. Goffstown (10-8)
11. Hollis Brookline (9-9)
12. Oyster River (8-10)
13. St. Thomas (7-11)
14. Kingswood (6-12)
15. Pelham (5-13)
16. Plymouth (5-13)

Potential matchups

• No. 16 Plymouth (5-13) at No. 1 Milford (16-2)
• No. 9 Windham (10-8) at No. 8 Pembroke (12-6)
• No. 13 St. Thomas (7-11) at No. 4 Merrimack Valley (14-4)
• No. 12 Oyster River (8-10) at No. 5 Lebanon (13-5)
• No. 15 Pelham (5-13) at No. 2 Hanover (16-2)
• No. 10 Goffstown (10-8) at No. 7 Portsmouth (12-6)
• No. 14 Kingswood (6-12) at No. 3 Souhegan (14-4)
• No. 11 Hollis Brookline (9-9) at No. 6 Coe-Brown (13-5)

The official Division II tournament pairings will be released by the NHIAA sometime on Monday. The tournament is scheduled to begin on Tuesday, March 4.