Winter Sports

Four games to determine fate of Division II girls basketball teams

It's the final night of the regular season and there are four games on the schedule that will impact not just the seeding for the Division II girls basketball tournament, but also which teams at the bottom will be in and out of the postseason.

Jennifer Dupuis and Milford would lock up the No. 1 seed in Division II with a win Friday night.

Here's a look at the potential field of 16 teams and where they might end up, based on our interpretation of the NHIAA's tiebreakers. Official brackets are expected to be released on Monday.

Top seeds

The scenario is pretty simple to figure out for Milford (16-1). Win and the Spartans are the No. 1 seed in the division, which is somewhat of a surprise given how much the Spartans lost from a year ago.

But a loss to St. Thomas on Friday, and a win by Hanover (15-2) over Manchester West, and the Spartans and Marauders would finish the regular season tied for the top spot. With Milford and Hanover not playing during the regular season, the spot would be decided by the second tiebreaker, which is rating against other teams in the postseason, or are tied for the final postseason spot.

Since West is not in contention for a playoff spot, Hanover's record against playoffs teams is 9-2, while Milford has a 13-1 record against teams in the postseason. If the Spartans lose to St. Thomas, that drops to 13-2, but still good enough to give Milford the top seed.

So these two teams are already locked into their spots, with Milford the No. 1 seed and Hanover the No. 2. A Milford win would just solidify that.

The cluster of contenders

The No. 3 seed belongs to Merrimack Valley (14-4) if, and only if, Souhegan (13-4) loses to Portsmouth (12-5) on Friday night. But a Sabers' win, and the fact the two didn't play this season, would again bring the second tiebreaker into play. In games against playoff teams, if Souhegan wins, both would have a record of 11-4.

That means the third tiebreaker would be in play, which is the quality of wins against playoff teams, and that would give the nod to Souhegan. So a Sabers win makes them the No. 3 seed and Merrimack Valley the No. 4.

But a Portsmouth win gives Merrimack Valley the No. 3 seed and opens the door for a four-way tie between the Sabers and Clippers, along with Lebanon (13-5) and Coe-Brown (13-5). The head-to-head tiebreaker could be used because all four teams played each other and their records put them in this order: Lebanon (3-1), Portsmouth (2-2), Souhegan (1-2) and Coe-Brown (1-2). The Sabers would then be ahead of the Bears thanks to a head-to-head win.

So a Souhegan loss to Portsmouth means Lebanon would be the No. 4 seed, Portsmouth the No. 5 seed, Souhegan the No. 6 seed and Coe-Brown the No. 7 seed. That would also make Pembroke (12-6) the eighth seed.

A Souhegan win leaves Lebanon and Coe-Brown tied, and the Raiders hold the tiebreaker to take the fifth seed, making Coe-Brown the sixth seed. That would also drop Portsmouth into a tie with Pembroke, and the Clippers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, giving them the seventh seed and Pembroke the eighth.

On the road

The rest of the seedings will depend on not only the Milford-St. Thomas game played in Dover, but also ConVal at Goffstown and Oyster River at Kennett games scheduled for Friday.

Sitting in the No. 9 spot at the moment is Windham (10-8), but should Goffstown (9-8) beat ConVal, the two would be tied for that spot. Since they split two regular-season meetings, the second tiebreaker would be used, giving the nod to Windham.

If Goffstown were to lose to ConVal, it would still end up as the No. 10 seed, thanks to its two wins over Hollis Brookline (8-9). The Cavaliers will play John Stark (1-16) on Friday, a team they beat by 38 points earlier this season, so a win would make HB the 11th seed.

A loss would drop the Cavs into a tie with Oyster River (7-10), if the Bobcats defeat Kennett, but HB holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oyster River, so the Cavs would still end up 11th and the Bobcats would be 12th. A loss by Oyster River and a win by St. Thomas (6-11) over Milford would also put the Bobcats 12th, because they own two wins over the Saints.

If St. Thomas loses, it would still end up 13th thanks to its two wins over Kingswood (6-12). But if Kennett (5-12) also wins, it creates a three-way tie.

Another scenario would be a Kennett win and a win by ConVal that would leave those two teams, plus Pelham (5-13) and Plymouth (5-13) in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots.

How they stand going into Friday night