Every game counts in Division II football playoffs

Every game on the Division II football schedule counts, in more ways than one.

That turned out to be the case after Jeff Collins, the NHIAA Executive Director, announced to the New Hampshire Football Report that the game played between Monadnock and Laconia during the bye week for both teams would count toward the postseason.

But its also true that the outcome of all 10 games in D2 this week will have an affect on the playoff field, even though there are (by our count) only 12 teams that still have a shot at making the postseason.

Why does every game count? It's the same reason why its so difficult to say who exactly is in at this point, and that's because every game affects the football ratings.

For example, the result from Saturday's game between Sanborn and John Stark will not only determine the fate of those two teams, but also would affect the rating of Souhegan, Milford, Windham, Monadnock and St. Thomas. Each of those teams has a win over Sanborn or John Stark, or both.

So instead of laying out all the scenarios, here's a look at each team that still has a shot at making the postseason, and the possible number of points each could pick up toward their respective rating.

Here's how the football rating system is done:

Before we get started, one thing to keep in mind, conference champions will be determined by football rating, not head-to-head results.

That means, for example, if Souhegan and Windham were to tie for first in the South Conference, the tiebreaker would go to the team with the better rating, not to the team with the head-to-head win, which in that case would be Windham. However, tiebreaking for playoff seeding will start with head-to-head results.

Teams currently in playoffs

St. Thomas (7-0)

The Saints are in the playoff field regardless, as the champion of the East Conference. St. Thomas is in line for not just a home playoff game, but also the No. 1 seed in the tournament. Going into the weekend, the Saints have 102 points, for a rating of 14.57.

Playoff scenarios for St. Thomas:

1. Would pick up 18 points if it beats Trinity.
2. Will get two points regardless of who wins between Pembroke and Merrimack Valley.
3. Would add two points each for wins by Plymouth (over Hanover); Laconia (over Kearsarge); Kingswood (over Kennett); Sanborn (over John Stark); Manchester West (over Milford).

Total possible points/rating: 132/16.5.

Likely points/rating: 124/15.5.

Souhegan (6-1)

The Sabers odds of winning the South Conference are good, but there's a chance they could get passed by Windham, or even Milford. Souhegan could end up with the No. 1 seed, but a lot needs to go the Sabers' way. Regardless of where they finish in the standings, Souhegan should end up with a home playoff game. Going into the weekend, the Sabers have 104 points and a rating of 14.86.

Playoff scenarios for Souhegan:

1. Would pick up 10 points if it beats Pelham.
2. Would add two points each for wins by Monadnock (over Windham); Milford (over West); Sanborn (over John Stark); Trinity (over St. Thomas); ConVal (over Lebanon).

Total possible points/rating: 124/15.5

Likely points/rating: 116/14.5

Windham (6-1)

The Jaguars could potentially gain more ground than either of their conference foes, Milford and Souhegan, because they're playing a first-place team in Monadnock. A win over the Huskies might move Windham high enough to finish in first in the conference, but not enough to catch St. Thomas. The Jaguars should end up with a home playoff game. Going into the weekend, Windham has 98 points and a rating of 14.00.

Playoff scenarios for Windham:

1. Would pick up 20 points for win over Monadnock.
2. Will get two points regardless of winner between John Stark and Sanborn.
3. Will get two points regardless of winner between Pelham and Souhegan.
4. Would get two points if Trinity beats St. Thomas.

Total possible points/rating: 124/15.5

Likely points/rating: 122/15.25

Milford (6-1)

Despite its win over Windham last week, it doesn't appear that the Spartans will win the conference, unless Souhegan and Windham both lose their regular-season finale. Still, Milford has done enough that it could end up with a home playoff game, depending on what else happens around the division. The Spartans enter the weekend with 100 points and a rating of 14.29.

Playoff scenarios for Milford:

1. Would pick up 10 points for a win over West.
2. Would get two points each for wins by John Stark (over Sanborn); Pelham (over Souhegan); Lebanon (over ConVal); Trinity (over St. Thomas); Windham (over Monadnock).

Total possible points/rating: 120/15.0

Likely points/rating: 116/14.5

Kennett (6-1)

Even with a loss to Kingswood, Kennett should still end up as the North Conference champion. While that guarantees the Eagles a spot in the postseason, it doesn't mean a home playoff game. Kennett would need to finish with a better rating than one of the four previous teams for that to happen. Going into the weekend, the Eagles have 96 points and a rating of 13.71.

Playoff scenarios for Kennett:

1. Would get 16 points for a win over Kingswood.
2. Will get two points regardless of winner between Merrimack Valley and Pembroke.
3. Will get two points regardless of winner between Kearsarge and Laconia.
4. Would get two points each for wins by Hanover (over Plymouth); Lebanon (over ConVal).

Total possible points/rating: 120/15.0

Likely points/rating: 118/14.75

Kearsarge (5-2)

The Cougars should have a playoff spot locked up, but there's an outside chance that if they don't beat Laconia, another team could step up and grab the spot. That, however, would likely mean a major upset taking place. Kearsarge enters the weekend with 78 points and a rating of 11.14.

Playoff scenarios for Kearsarge:

1. Would get 18 points with a win over Laconia.
2. Will get two points regardless of winner between Merrimack Valley and Pembroke.
3. Would get two points each for wins by Hanover (over Plymouth); Monadnock (over Windham); Lebanon (over ConVal).

Total possible points/rating: 104/13.0

Likely points/rating: 100/12.5

Lebanon (4-3)

The Raiders need a win to get into the postseason, although a loss wouldn't necessarily eliminate them. Lebanon ends the year against ConVal, which has won just three games in the last three seasons. After starting the year 3-0 in the division, the Raiders have lost three of their last four. They go into the weekend with 64 points and a rating of 9.14.

Playoff scenarios for Lebanon:

1. Would get 14 points with a win over ConVal.
2. Will get two points regardless of winner between Plymouth and Hanover.
3. Would get two points each for wins by Kingswood (over Kennett); Laconia (over Kearsarge).

Total possible points/rating: 84/10.5

Likely points/rating: 80/10.0

Monadnock (5-3)

The West Conference is the Huskies to lose, thanks to that extra win over Laconia. If Monadnock beats Windham, than it takes the conference title without question. If the Huskies lose, then things get interesting. Going into the weekend, Monadnock has 74 points and a rating of 9.25.

Playoff scenarios for Monadnock:

1. Would get 22 points for a win over Windham.
2. Would get two points each for a win by Laconia (over Kearsarge); ConVal (over Lebanon); John Stark (over Sanborn); Pelham (over Souhegan).

Total possible points/rating: 104/11.56

Likely points/rating: 76/8.44

Still alive

John Stark (4-3)

The Generals need to beat Sanborn to have any shot at making the postseason. The only way John Stark can get in is by winning the West Conference, and it will take a lot of help to make it happen. The Generals go into the weekend with 50 points and a rating of 7.14.

Playoff scenarios for John Stark:

1. Would get 16 points for a win over Sanborn.
2. Would get two points each for wins by ConVal (over Lebanon); Pembroke (over Merrimack Valley); West (over Milford.
3. If Monadnock, Laconia, ConVal and Pelham all lose, and John Stark and Pembroke win, the Generals would win the West Conference. John Stark would have 68 points and a rating of 8.50, while Monadnock would have 76 points and (because of the ninth game) a rating of 8.44.

Total possible points/rating: 72/9.00

Likely points/rating: 66/8.25

Plymouth (3-4)

How is a team with a losing record still in the hunt? Because the Bobcats beat the top two teams in the North Conference, which accounts for a lot of points. But while that helps Plymouth out, it won't be enough unless Lebanon loses to ConVal. Going into the weekend, Plymouth has 56 points and a rating of 8.00.

Playoff scenarios for Plymouth:

1. Would get 14 points for a win over Hanover.
2. Would get two points each for a win by Kennett (over Kingswood); Kearsarge (over Laconia); Merrimack Valley (over Pembroke).
3. Needs Lebanon to lose to ConVal, combined with wins by at least Kennett and Kearsarge. If Lebanon wins, Plymouth would be eliminated.

Total possible points/rating: 76/9.5

Likely points/rating: 76/9.5

Trinity (4-3)

For the Pioneers to get in, they need to pull of perhaps the biggest upset of the season - beating St. Thomas. But if Trinity could do that, and have a couple of other teams lose, it might be able to sneak into the postseason. The Pioneers have 50 points for a rating of 7.14.

Playoff scenarios for Trinity:

1. Would get 24 points for a win over St. Thomas.
2. Will get two points regardless of winner between Plymouth and Hanover.
3. Would get two points each for wins by West (over Milford) and Pelham (over Souhegan).
4. Would also need Lebanon to lose to ConVal.

Total possible points/rating: 80/10.0

Likely points/rating: 52/6.5

Predicted playoff field

Based on the likely ratings above, here is what the playoff field would look like.

1. St. Thomas (15.50) - East Conference champion
2. Windham (15.25) - South Conference champion
3. Kennett (14.75) - North Conference champion
4. Souhegan (14.50) - wins tiebreaker with Milford (head-to-head)
5. Milford (14.50)
6. Kearsarge (12.50)
7. Lebanon (10.00)
8. Monadnock (8.44) - West Conference champion