Winter Sports

D1 boys basketball title looks like its Manchester Central's to lose

The last time the Manchester Central High School boys basketball team finished a season undefeated, it was led by a player going on to play Division I ball in college.

The second season begins Tuesday for Manchester Central and the rest of Division I.

The last time the Manchester Central High School boys basketball team finished a season undefeated, it was led by a player going on to play Division I ball in college.

That year, the Little Green were unbeatable. This year, with Central entering the tournament at 18-0, a loss could be possible, but it's going to take someone's best effort, and perhaps Central's worst. Merrimack, Bedford and Winnacunnet all gave the Green tough games during the regular season, while Trinity is certainly capable of taking down Central. And then there's the unknown - Bishop Guertin, which didn't play Central during the regular season.

Here is how the brackets looks, and our predictions for a winner.

First Round: Tuesday, March 4

No. 16 Concord (6-12) at No. 1 Manchester Central (18-0): Central isn't just beating teams, it's destroying them. In its last eight games, the Little Green have won by an average of 33.6 points, and if you take out an eight-point win over Winnacunnet, its a 37.3 point margin. But Central isn't unbeatable. It just won't likely be Concord - which lost to the Green 88-49 during the regular season - that's the one to do it.
No. 9 Nashua South (9-9) at No. 8 Exeter (10-8): These two teams played a highly entertaining, back-and-forth game just a few weeks ago, won by Exeter. That contest seemed to send each in opposite directions. South lost five of six, including that game, while Exeter won its final five. Yordy Tavarez has had an outstanding senior season for South, but he needs to get help scoring for the Panthers to win and that hasn't happened recently. As for the Blue Hawks, the return of Zach Holler has given Exeter the boost it needed to end the season. The Hawks are finally at full strength and will be hosting their first postseason game since 2008.
No. 13 Salem (7-11) at No. 4 Londonderry (14-4): Both teams were a bit of a surprise this season, as some expected Salem to be in the mix for a top eight spot while Londonderry figured to be a lot lower in the standings. But the Lancers are a talented group, which includes Caleb Green, Cody Ball and Marc Corey, with anyone capable of taking over a game. Salem's trio of Michael Felix, Tim Dodier and Jared Gott can put up points for the Blue Devils, but the defense has been the problem at times. Salem gave up an average of 63.3 points in its 11 losses.
No. 12 Manchester Memorial (8-10) at No. 5 Bishop Guertin (13-5): It's a battle of the division's most confusing teams. The Crusaders have the talent to be a top four team, but off the court issues have brought inconsistency to the lineup on a regular bases. Memorial has a talented duo in Trevon Maughn and Kabongo Ngalukukondi and the Crusaders can score points, breaking 75 seven times this season. One of those was a 74-72 loss to Bishop Guertin, just another of several games the Cardinals won in the final moments. Bishop Guertin had 13 games decided by eight points or less this season and the Cardinals have likely played more overtime games than anyone in the state.
No. 15 Alvirne (6-12) at No. 2 Trinity (17-1): It only feels like these two teams meet in the postseason every year, and then they do meet, Trinity wins. In 2012, it was a Pioneers' win in the quarterfinals, and in 2011, that win was in the semifinals. If basketball games were three periods, instead of four quarters, Alvirne might be one of the top seeds. The Broncos have been plagued by a bad stretch in almost every game this year, and they had to beat Nashua North on the final night of the regular season to get into the playoffs. Since losing to Central on Jan. 19, in a game that took nearly a month to play, the Pioneers have won 12 in a row, including wins over Bishop Guertin, Merrimack and Londonderry. Trinity has plenty of experience, as a lot of the players who contributed to last year's title - including recent 1,00oth-point scorer Carmen Giampetruzzi - are still with the Pioneers.
No. 10 Pinkerton (9-9) at No. 7 Bedford (11-7): The return of Pinkerton's Luke Rosinski has appeared to bring life back to the Astros, but will be enough to beat a resurgent Bedford team? The Bulldogs opened the year 1-7, losing close games to Bishop Guertin, Merrimack and Central, and have won 10 in a row since. It would be remarkable, except that Bedford did the same thing a year ago, winning nine of 10 going into the postseason. Bedford won the regular-season meeting a week and a half ago, beating the Astros 50-48 at home.
No. 14 Manchester West (6-12) at No. 3 Merrimack (16-2): So much has been made about the decline of athletics at West that the Blue Knights may just be happy to be in the playoffs. It took a win over Concord on the final night of regular season to get West in and there may not be a better team for the Blue Knights to play if they're looking for an upset. Since the 2005-06 season, it's been feast or famine for Merrimack. The Tomahawks either reach the championship game (2006, 2012) or they get knocked off in the first round. This Merrimack team, with Eric Gendron leading the way, just seems too complete to bow out in the first round to a team it beat by 18 points two weeks ago.
No. 11 Spaulding (9-9) at No. 6 Winnacunnet (12-6): Spaulding slid into the postseason, losing four in a row before a 65-62 win over Bishop Guertin in the regular-season finale. The Red Raiders have the talent to make another run to the final four, which they have the last two years. Sixty is the magic number for Spaulding - its 8-1 when it scores 60 points or more, and 1-8 when it doesn't. The Warriors are right where they should be - they lost to everyone about them in the standings, and beat everyone below them, minus Pinkerton.

Most likely first-round upset: There are several that could happen, given Merrimack's recent playoff history and the enigma that is the Memorial-Bishop Guertin game, but the most likely upset is No. 11 Spaulding over No. 6 Winnacunnet. The duo of Darian Berry and Charlie Nevejans can be dynamite for the Raiders, who has made it to the semifinals the last two years. The Warriors did win the regular-season meeting, but it was a five-point game in January, with a lot less on the line.

First-round winners: No. 1 Manchester Central, No. 9 Nashua South, No. 4 Londonderry, No. 5 Bishop Guertin, No. 2 Trinity, No. 7 Bedford, No. 3 Merrimack, No. 11 Spaulding.

Final four matchups: Manchester Central vs. Bishop Guertin; Trinity vs. Merrimack.

Championship: Manchester Central over Trinity.

Tournament schedule