Bracketology: Division I girls basketball

This is it, the final Friday of the regular season, and there is still so much to be decided.

That includes the No. 1 seed, which will be determined at Bishop Guertin High School, as the Cardinals (16-1) host Bedford (15-2) in the second game of a doubleheader. The winner gets the No. 1 seed in the tournament, while the loser could slide down a few places in the standings.

With so many teams either tied in the standings, or just a game apart, a lot could - and will - happen Friday night to determine who is playing where in the first round of the D1 tournament.

How the playoffs stand

Here's a look at the first-round matchups if the playoff started Friday. Tiebreakers have been applied

• No. 16 Keene (4-14) at No. 1 Bishop Guertin (16-1)
• No. 9 Merrimack (8-9) at No. 8 Manchester Central (9-8)
• No. 12  Trinity (7-10)at No. 5 Pinkerton (13-4)
• No. 13 Manchester Memorial (7-10) at No. 4 Londonderry (14-3)
• No. 15 Exeter (4-13) at No. 2 Bedford (15-2)
• No. 10 Dover (8-9) at No. 7 Nashua North (11-6)
• No. 14 Nashua South (5-13) at No. 3 Winnacunnet (14-3)
• No. 11 Salem (7-10) at No. 6 Alvirne (12-5)

Top four

• Bishop Guertin (16-1): It's simple for the Cardinals. A win Friday over Bedford gives Bishop Guertin the No. 1 seed in the tournament. A loss, and the Cardinals will be the No. 2 seed. Bishop Guertin's defense has been solid in February, allowing more than 30 points twice and averaging 28.6 points per game. Best wins: at Winnacunnet (48-41), Alvirne (42-25), at North (56-27), Pinkerton (50-38). Bad losses: None.
• Bedford (15-2): A win over Bishop Guertin would give the Bulldogs the No. 1 seed in the tournament. But a loss, combined with a Londonderry win over Nashua North and a Winnacunnet loss to Manchester Central, opens the door for Bedford to slip down to the No. 3 seed. The Bulldogs have allowed more than 38 points just twice all season. Best wins: at Londonderry (45-33), at Winnacunnet (64-46), Pinkerton (40-33). Bad losses: Londonderry (28-21).
• Winnacunnet (14-3): The Warriors picked up their seventh straight win last week by beating Alvirne, and a win over Central would give them a top four seed. That would mean a much easier road to the final four, as a opposed to a year ago, when Winnacunnt reach the final as a No. 9 seed. Best wins: at Nashua North (74-49), Londonderry (65-45), at Alvirne (42-33). Bad losses: None.
• Londonderry (14-3): The Lancers have the greatest possibility for movement here, as they could end up with the No. 2 seed, or stay as the No. 4 seed, even with a win. Londonderry is the only team to beat Bishop Guertin this year, and the only team to score more than 47 points against the Cardinals. Best wins: at Bishop Guertin (50-44), at Bedford (28-21), Pinkerton (39-28). Bad losses: Dover (54-49).

Next four

• Pinkerton (13-4): The Astros are in a bit of a free fall, having lost four of their last seven games, and in those losses, they've averaged just 32 points (compared to 48. 4 in wins). Fortunately for Pinkerton, it owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alvirne and Winnacunnet, so no matter what, the Astros will be no worse than the No. 5 seed, and could even move up to No. 4. Best wins: Winnacunnet (48-31), at Alvirne (43-33). Bad losses: Nashua North (43-29).
• Alvirne (12-5): Regardless of Friday's results, the Broncos will be the No. 6 seed, thanks to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Nashua North. Alvirne's five losses have all come against the five teams ahead of it in the standings. Best wins: at Nashua North (55-54), Manchester Central (49-31). Bad losses: at Bishop Guertin (42-25).
• Nashua North (11-6): The formula for winning is an easy one for the Titans - make shots from the outside, and make them early. In its losses, North has fallen behind early and couldn't get the stops to come back. The Titans are locked into the No. 7 seed. Best wins: at Pinkerton (43-29), Bedford (49-44). Bad losses: Manchester Memorial (60-58), Trinity (41-29).
• Manchester Central (9-8): The Little Green have struggled of late, dropping three of their last five and Central is just 4-5 in its last nine. But, even with a loss, Central will be the No. 8 seed - and get a home playoff game - thanks it head-to-head wins over Dover and Merrimack. Best wins: Nashua North (45-43). Bad losses: Trinity (59-55), Salem (42-39).

Rest of the field

• Merrimack (8-9)
• Dover (8-9)
• Salem (7-10)
• Trinity (7-10)
• Manchester Memorial (7-10)
• Nashua South (5-13)
• Exeter (4-13)
• Keene (4-14)

Team no one wants to face: Trinity. The Pioneers lost six games in a row to finish the first half of the year 2-7. Since then, Trinity has gone 5-3 with wins over Central and North, while also playing Dover and Bedford close. The Pioneers also gave Bishop Guertin one of its closest games of the season.

On the outside

• Concord (0-17)
• Spaulding (0-17)

One of these teams will get a win, as they will play in Concord in the final game of the regular season on Feb. 26.

Projected seeding

1. Bishop Guertin
2. Bedford
3. Winnacunnet
4. Londonderry
5. Pinkerton
6. x - Alvirne
7. x - Nashua North
8. x - Manchester Central
9. Merrimack
10. Salem
11. Dover
12. Trinity
13. Manchester Memorial
14. Nashua South
15. Exeter
16. x - Keene

x - clinched that playoff seed.