Bracketology: Division I boys basketball

For the second year in a row, a team enters the Division I boys basketball tournament with a perfect record.

But can Londonderry do what Manchester Central did a year ago and finish the year a perfect 22-0? The Lancers sure looked like a team that could this week, ending the season with two wins by a combined 37 points.

Here’s how the bracket should look when the NHIAA releases the tournament pairings before the games begin on March 11.

Note: These pairings are not official. They are what we expect them to be based on our interpretations of the tiebreakers.

Top four seeds

The line has been clearly drawn in the sand. The top four seeds in this tournament appear to be a step above everyone else and they played like it throughout the season.

Londonderry (18-0) had a handful of single digit wins against lower seeds, but beat Spaulding (15-3) and Manchester Central (17-1) by double digits. The Lancers certainly aren't unbeatable, but they enter the tournament with momentum.

Central also ended its regular season on a high with a buzzer-beating win over Alvirne and the Little Green are always a title contender, especially when they're one of the top seeds. Spaulding's loss to Londonderry proved to be slightly damaging, as it dropped the Red Raiders into fourth, behind Pinkerton (15-3). The Astros will be the third seed thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker over Spaulding.

Contenders?

Bedford (11-7) gets the fifth seed despite having lost seven games this season. Of course, the Bulldogs were seven points away from winning four more games and being in the group above.

Pembroke (9-7) isn't the team it was the last couple of years, but the Spartans have been able to play with everyone, with its biggest loss an 11-point defeat to Central in its final game. However, Pembroke's worse loss was a seven-point setback against Salem. Still, the Spartans will be the sixth seed.

Wrong way

Nashua South (10-8) looked like it could be a team that would make some noise in the playoffs, as the Panthers had won six in a row to move up the standings. But then South lost three of its final four, including road loses to Keene and Dover, which isn't in the playoffs. Despite the slump South will be the seventh seed.

On Feb. 3, Alvirne was 8-2 and Merrimack was 6-4; a little more than a month later, both teams are 9-9. Alvirne lost seven of its final eight games, with that lone win against Merrimack, giving the Broncos the head-to-head tiebreaker. Alvirne will be eight seed, hosting the ninth seeded Tomahawks.

A lot of tiebreakers

The final seven teams in the tournament are separated by just two games (of course, the bottom 10 have four games between them).

Trinity (8-10) gets the 10th seed over Manchester Memorial (8-10) thanks to its head-to-head tiebreaker. The Pioneers won their final two games to move up while Memorial dropped five in a row before beating Salem in the regular-season finale.

Bishop Guertin (7-11) get the 12th seed because of its head-to-head tiebreaker over Keene (7-11). Like a handful of other teams in the division, the Cardinals are going in the wrong direction, having lost six in a row. Keene went 4-4 down the stretch to secure the 13th spot in the postseason.

Three teams tied for the final three spots, and Salem (6-12) ends up winning the tiebreaker, thanks to its wins over both Nashua North (6-12) and Winnacunnet (6-12). The Blue Devils will be the 14th seed, while North's win over Winnacunnet gives it the 15th seed. The Warriors then get the 16th seed.

Tournament field

1. Londonderry (18-0, 4.0000)
2. Manchester Central (17-1, 3.7778)
3. Pinkerton (15-3, 3.3333) - head-to-head
4. Spaulding (15-3, 3.3333)
5. Bedford (11-7, 2.4444)
6. Pembroke (9-7, 2.2500)
7. Nashua South (10-8, 2.2222)
8. Alvirne (9-9, 2.0000) - head-to-head
9. Merrimack (9-9, 2.0000)
10. Trinity (8-10, 1.7778) - head-to-head
11. Manchester Memorial (8-10, 1.7778)
12. Bishop Guertin (7-11, 1.5556) - head-to-head
13. Keene (7-11, 1.5556)
14. Salem (6-12, 1.3333) - head-to-head
15. Nashua North (6-12, 1.3333) - head-to-head
16. Winnacunnet (6-12, 1.3333)

Projected Pairings

Note: These are not official. The NHIAA will release official pairings.

• No. 16 Winnacunnet at No. 1 Londonderry
• No. 9 Merrimack at No. 8 Alvirne
• No. 13 Keene at No. 4 Spaulding
• No. 12 Bishop Guertin at No. 5 Bedford
• No. 15 Nashua North at No. 2 Manchester Central
• No. 10 Trinity at No. 7 Nashua South
• No. 14 Salem at No. 3 Pinkerton
• No. 11 Manchester Memorial at No. 6 Pembroke

Tournament schedule

• Preliminary round: Wednesday, March 11 at higher seed
• Quarterfinal: Saturday, March 14 at higher seed
• Semifinal: Tuesday, March 17 at University of New Hampshire
• Final: Saturday, March 21 at University of New Hampshire