Bracketology: Division I Boys Basketball (Feb. 28)

(Updated Feb. 28) The Division I boys basketball regular season has less than a week left in it. While there is still a lot to be decided before the postseason starts, here is what the playoff field would look like if the NHIAA playoffs started now.

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Note: With the NHIAA’s 70-percent rule in place for the postseason, Division I will have 13 teams. Standings based off results reported to NHIAA.org and other media outlets. These are not official pairings.

Division I

Playoff field (record, rating)

1. Portsmouth (15-2, 3.5294)
2. Exeter (13-4, 3.0588)
3. Bedford (13-4, 3.0588)
4. Manchester Memorial (12-5, 2.8235)
5. Winnacunnet (12-5, 2.8235)
6. Manchester Central (12-5, 2.8235)
7. Alvirne (12-5, 2.8235)
8. Londonderry (11-6, 2.5882)
9. Spaulding (9-8, 2.1176)
10. Merrimack (8-9, 1.8824)
11. Salem (8-9, 1.8824)
12. Dover (7-10, 1.6471)
13. Concord (6-11, 1.4118)

Outside: Nashua South (6-11, 1.4118); Pinkerton (5-12, 1.1765); Keene (4-13, 0.9412); Nashua North (4-13, 0.9412); Bishop Guertin (3-14, 0.7059); Trinity (2-16, 0.4444).

Tiebreakers

• Exeter wins the tiebreaker with Bedford thanks to a head-to-head victory.
• Manchester Memorial (8-4, 2.6667) wins the four-way tiebreakers with Alvirne (7-5, 2.3333), Winnacunnet (7-5, 2.3333) and Manchester Central (7-5, 2.3333) thanks to a better rating against tournament teams.
• Winnacunnet (.4000) wins the three-way tiebreaker with Manchester Central (.3953) and Alvirne (.3765) thanks to a better quality of wins against tournament teams.
• Manchester Central wins the tiebreaker with Alvirne thanks to a better quality of wins against tournament teams. (Note: Alvirne has beaten both Winnacunnet and Central this season, but because those two teams will play for the first time in Friday's finale, head-to-head rating can't be used as the tiebreaker right now.)
• Merrimack wins the tiebreaker with Salem thanks to a head-to-head victory.
• Concord wins the tiebreaker with Nashua South thanks to a head-to-head victory.

Schedule

• Friday, March 2: Bedford at Bishop Guertin, 5:30 p.m.; Portsmouth at Alvirne, 6:30 p.m.; Salem at Dover, 6:30 p.m.; Pinkerton at Exeter, 6:30 p.m.; Keene at Nashua South, 6:30 p.m.; Londonderry at Nashua North, 6:30 p.m.; Merrimack at Manchester Memorial, 6:30 p.m.; Manchester Central at Winnacunnet, 6:30 p.m.; Concord at Spaulding, 7 p.m.

Scenarios

• Portsmouth has clinched the No. 1 seed.
• Exeter will clinch the No. 2 seed and first-round bye with a win.
• Bedford will clinch the No. 3 seed and first-round bye with a win. The Bulldogs could move up to two with a win and an Exeter loss.
• It's possible there could be a five-way tie for second between Exeter, Bedford, Manchester Memorial, Alvirne and the winner of the Central-Winnacunnet game. If that happens, Memorial ends up with the No. 2 seed and Exeter ends up with the No. 3 seed.
• Alvirne and Londonderry are the only teams in the top eight that don't have a shot at a first-round bye.
• Concord clinches the final playoff spot with a win.
• Nashua South gets the last playoff spot with a win and a Concord loss.
• Pinkerton, Keene, Nashua North, Bishop Guertin and Trinity have been eliminated.

First-round byes (changes in bold)

• No. 1 Portsmouth
• No. 2 Exeter
• No. 3 Bedford

First-round matchups

• No. 9 Spaulding at No. 8 Londonderry
• No. 12 Dover at No. 5 Winnacunnet
• No. 13 Concord at No. 4 Manchester Memorial
• No. 10 Merrimack at No. 7 Alvrirne
• No. 11 Salem at No. 6 Manchester Central