Bracketology: Division I boys basketball

The final night of the regular season is Friday and the only thing that's certain is the 16 teams that will be participating in the Division I tournament, starting Wednesday.

None of the 16 seeds have been locked up yet, and with eight games on the slate - and 14 teams that will be in the playoffs - a lot will change before the end of the night.

Here is a look at where each team is, and some of the possibilities of where it could end up.

How the playoffs stand

Here's a look at the first-round matchups if the playoff started Friday. Tiebreakers have been applied.

• No. 16 Trinity (5-12) at No. 1 Nashua North (15-3)
• No. 9 Nashua South (10-7) at No. 8 Winnacunnet (11-6)
• No. 12 Bishop Guertin (7-11) at No. 5 Manchester Memorial (11-6)
• No. 13 Keene (6-11) at No. 4 Exeter (13-4)
• No. 15 Spaulding (6-11) at No. 2 Pinkerton (14-3)
• No. 10 Londonderry (9-8) at No. 7 Bedford (11-6)
• No. 14 Alvirne (6-11) at No. 3 Manchester Central (13-4)
• No. 11 Salem (8-9) at No. 6 Merrimack (11-6)

Top four

• Nashua North (15-3): The Titans wrapped up the regular season on Tuesday with a 19-point win over Merrimack, their ninth win in a row. North will be the No. 1 or 2 seed, depending on what happens in Friday's game between Merrimack and Pinkerton. A win by the Tomahawks gives North the top seed, while a win by the Astros would make North the two seed. During their win streak, the Titans have scored an average of 69.8 points per game and have allowed 56.7. Best wins: Winnacunnet (51-48), at Bedford (76-58), Exeter (68-56), at Merrimack (73-54). Bad losses: None.
• Pinkerton (14-3): It's simple for the Astros: win and they're the No. 1 seed. Lose and its possible Pinkerton could drop to third if things don't break its way. The good news is that the Astros can finish no worse than that, even if they end up in a three-way tie with Manchester Central and Exeter. If Pinkerton ends up tied with Central, the Astros are the No. 2 seed. If Pinkerton ends up tied with Exeter, its the No. 3. Best wins: Manchester Central (61-43), Manchester Memorial (79-67), Nashua North (75-54). Bad losses: Bedford (59-39).
• Manchester Central (13-4): The Little Green will be no worse than fourth, and the only way that happens is if Central loses to Alvirne and Exeter beats Bedford. Central could finish second only if it finishes in a three-way tie with Pinkerton and Exeter. Best wins: Manchester Memorial (78-70), at Nashua North (81-42), Exeter (86-75), Merrimack (69-53), at Winnacunnet (48-45). Bad losses: at Bishop Guertin (56-53).
• Exeter (13-4): The Blue Hawks turned in one of their best performances of the season in last week's 11-point win over Pinkerton. Best case scenario for Exeter is a win over Bedford combined with losses by Pinkerton and Central, giving Exeter the second seed. Worst case? The Blue Hawks stay right where they are. Best wins: Nashua South (84-73), Winnacunnet (61-56), Manchester Memorial (92-79), Pinkerton (83-72). Bad losses: Londonderry (65-49).

Next four

• Manchester Memorial (11-6): The Crusaders are the fifth seed at the moment because they win the four-way head-to-head tiebreaker with Merrimack, Bedford and Winnacunnet. A victory Friday over Salem would clinch that fifth seed, but a loss could potentially drop Memorial out of a home game, depending on what else happens around the division (see below). The Crusaders have struggled as of late, dropping three of their last four games. Best wins: at Nashua North (82-75), Bedford (80-76), Merrimack (66-62). Bad losses: Exeter (92-79), Londonderry (72-44).
• Merrimack (11-6): The Tomahawks have also struggled down the stretch, going 2-4 in their last six, with the wins over Dover and Keene. Merrimack holds tiebreakers over Bedford and Winnacunnet, so a tie with either team would put the Tomahawks higher. But there's a chance, like with Memorial, that if things break a certain way, Merrimack could finish outside of the top eight (again, see below). The Tomahawks need a win at Pinkerton to keep that from happening. Best wins: Bedford (51-26), Exeter (79-77), Winnacunnet (54-42). Bad losses: at Bishop Guertin (66-49), Alvirne (62-57).
• Bedford (11-6): At the start of the week, the Bulldogs looked at Friday's home game with Exeter as a chance to climb into the top four. Instead, Bedford lost on the road to Concord on a buzzer-beater, putting it in the mix for a spot somewhere between fifth and ninth. Bedford would need a win and losses by Memorial and Merrimack to finish fifth, because it loses tiebreakers with both. But just like those two teams, its possible a loss could put the Bulldogs on the road in the playoffs (one more time, see below). Best wins: Winnacunnet (59-58), Pinkerton (59-39). Bad losses: Merrimack (51-29), at Concord (63-62).
• Winnacunnet (11-6): The Warriors could lose at Keene on Friday and end up the eighth seed. Or they could win and ... end up the eighth seed. Winnacunnet could finish as high as fifth, if it wins and the previous three teams all lose. The only way the Warriors move up with a loss is if its combined with a loss by Memorial. Best wins: Manchester Memorial (69-53), Pinkerton (63-53), Nashua South (71-46). Bad losses: None.

Total chaos

Going into Friday's game, Nashua South (10-7) is in control of the ninth seed, which means a road game in the first round. But, the Panthers are in a unique situation, thanks to not only their play against the four teams directly above them, but to the lackluster play of late by those teams.

South holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with Memorial, Merrimack and Bedford, and the Panthers have perhaps the most winnable game of the four, too, as they host Dover Friday night.

If all four - Memorial, Merrimack, Bedford and Winnacunnet - are to lose Friday, and South is to win, it would win a tiebreaker within that cluster, thanks to a 3-1 record, and would finish fifth.

While that seems like asking for quite a bit, South would surely settle for this - if the Panthers beat Dover and just one of Memorial, Merrimack or Bedford loses, they get a home playoff game.

This or that

• Londonderry (9-8): The Lancers will finish either 10th or 11th. They lose a tiebreaker with South, meaning a win over Spaulding gets them the 10th seed. Londonderry also loses a tiebreaker with Salem, so a loss and a win by the Blue Devils would drop them to 11th. Best wins: Exeter (65-49), Winnacunnet (51-49), Manchester Central (78-62), Manchester Memorial (72-44). Bad loss: None.
• Salem (8-9): The Blue Devils got themselves back in the mix by winning four in a row after the game-winner-that-wasn't at Winnacunnet. But then Salem lost by 15 points at Keene on Tuesday, meaning it needs a Londonderry loss and a win against Memorial to finish 10th. Otherwise, Salem will be the 11th seed. Best wins: Manchester Central (71-70). Bad loss: at Concord (57-55), at Keene (60-45).

In what order

• Bishop Guertin (7-11): The Cardinals finished off the regular season with a 23-point win over Trinity on Tuesday. Bishop Guertin can finish no higher than 12th, but loses head-to-head tiebreakers with Alvirne and Spaulding. In fact, the Cardinals could finish as low as 14th, but only if its a four-way tie with Keene, Alvirne and Spaulding. Best wins: Merrimack (66-49), Manchester Central (56-53). Bad loss: at Nashua South (65-30).
• Keene (6-11): As of now, the Blackbirds win the three-way tiebreaker with Alvirne and Spaulding to get the 13th seed. Keene would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos, but not with the Red Raiders. One thing the Blackbirds have going for them is the game vs. Winnacunnet is at home. This is the highest Keene could finish because it loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Bishop Guertin. But the Blackbirds will also be no worse than 15th. Best win: Salem (60-45). Good loss: Manchester Central (55-53). Bad loss: at Dover (58-57).
• Alvirne (6-11): The Broncos could finish as high as 12th, or as low as 16th, thanks to wins over Bishop Guertin and Spaulding, and losses to Keene and Trinity. Best win: at Merrimack (62-57). Bad loss: None.
• Spaulding (6-11): The Red Raiders have come on as of late, winning three of four to give themselves a chance at the 12th seed. Spaulding can finish no lower than 15th. Best wins: at Trinity (63-61). Bad loss: at Bedford (59-26).
• Trinity (5-12): Currently the 16th seed, the Pioneers play at Concord to end the regular season. A win there would snap a seven-game losing streak that included losses to every team Trinity could end up tied with, except for Alvirne. Best wins: Nashua South (58-44), Salem (66-59). Bad loss: Keene (68-51).

On the outside

• Concord (3-14)
• Dover (2-15)
• Pembroke (0-17)

Projected seeding

1. Pinkerton
2. Nashua North
3. Manchester Central
4. Exeter
5. Winnacunnet
6. Nashua South
7. Manchester Memorial
8. Merrimack
9. Bedford
10. Londonderry
11. Salem
12. Bishop Guertin
13. Spaulding
14. Keene
15. Trinity
16. Alvirne